Saturday, July 29, 2006

Missed the Money train...

Oh man, this was a terrible week in a good way. It wasn't terrible because I had a huge loss, but I missed a great opportunity which would have netted me 300 pips. I was playing the GBP JPY and went short at 215.20 with 3 minis with a stop at 215.80 and target of 214.20. It was very likely based on my analysis that the pair was heading south. I set myself a 100 pip profit limit and waited for the big drop. My plan was to take 2 lots out at 100 pips and let the the 3rd ride.

The entry couldn't have been more perfect. The price was hovering around 215.00 and I didn't want to enter at that price. Usually I have seen on this pair that when price hovers around a price level before it moves on there is a small upspike/downspike in the opposite direction. Since the price had been hanging around around 215 for while, I entered an sell order at 215.20. If there was an upsurge before the price bottoming then I would have a better price. Well guess what, the price did spike upto 215.35 and I got in at 215.20. The price dawdled around 215 again for a while and finally broke through.

Everthing was looking good and the pair was dropping down nicely and heading towards my target. I moved my stop to break even point. When the pair had dropped had dropped down 40 pips I moved my stop to 216.10. Then when it moved down further to 215.50, I moved stop to 215.00.


Did I do anything wrong by moving my stops? Did I move them too early? I don't think I did anything wrong by moving my stops. The cardinal rule is never to let a Winner turn into a Loser. With everything going my way I went for a good sleep. Well the price dropped all the way to 215.33 and reversed. It stopped at 215.94 before heading down. But because of the huge 9 pip spread my stop order was hit and executed taking me out with a net 60 pip profit. The money train left me because of a lousy 3 pips.

The pair then happily moved down into 213 territory. Initially I felt very bad and upset in the morning when I realised that I had missed the killing move. At one point in time I had a net 220 pips on paper. I was cussing myself for having moved my stop too early.

But after everything sank in, I realized that I had lost nothing, infact I had 60 pips in the bag. What was I crying about then? Yes, I had missed the 100 pip move which would have netted me 300 pips. I had missed a big opportunity today, but there will always be numerous opportunites around every corner. I just have to wait for another one. I have to stop crying over my spilt milk and move on. I have come to value these great lessons taught by the market.

Apart from this I had 2 more trades for the week one with a 60 pip profit on the EURJPY and another with a 120 pip loss. So overall, I'm still at the same place for the month with 200 pips profit.

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